When I play poker, I love the challenge of reading opponents or pulling off a nasty bluff, but the reality is that winning poker is all about making smart bets as often as possible. Just as you wouldn’t invest money in some shady deal, you don’t want to put money in the pot unless you have potential to make money. To do that consistently in poker, you need to have a basic understanding of odds and outs.
Basic Odds
First, let’s talk a little about odds. Your “basic odds” are simply the ratio of one outcome to another, like winning to losing. If someone says you have “2 to 1 odds to win”, that means you win two times for each one time you lose. Over time, you will win two out of every three situations and lose the other one.
Basic odds can be expressed in either of two ways—as a ratio of one outcome to another or as the ratio of one outcome to the total outcomes. In the above situation, we can say you have 2 to 1 odds to win OR your odds of winning are 2 in 3. The first is the ratio of outcomes (2 wins to 1 loss); the second is the ratio of one outcome to the total outcomes (2 wins out of 3 total times). They mean the same thing.
Basic odds in poker are most easily thought about in one on one (heads-up) situations. In the chart below, you can see the odds of some Texas hold’em hand match-ups before the flop. For example, if you hold pocket aces and your opponents holds fishhooks, you’re a 4 to 1 favorite (80%) to win the hand. If you hold a pair versus two overcards, you’re basically slightly better than even money (1.2 to 1) to win the pot. That’s why you hear the TV commentators saying, “He’s a coin-flip here, Norm!” when a player turns over QQ versus an opponent’s AK.
Match-up Example Odds
Overpair v underpair AA v JJ 4 to 1
Dominated card AKo v AQo 2.6 to 1
Pair v one overcard QQ v ATo 2.3 to 1
Two over-cards v two undercards AKo v 53o 2 to 1
One overcard ATo v J9o 1.6 to 1
In-between cards ATo v QJo 1.5 to 1
Pair v two overcards QQ v AKo 1.2 to 1
Pot Odds
Once you understand your basic odds, you compare them to your pot odds. Your “pot odds” are the amount of the payoff you’re being offered given the amount of chips in a pot and the amount of your bet or call. For example, let’s say you’re in the late stages of a tournament. You raised with AQ and your opponent has re-raised you all-in with what you think might be AK. If you see 1500 chips in the pot and it’s 500 for you to call; we say you’re being offered 3 to 1 (1500/500) odds on your money. To make that situation pay off, you need to be no worse than a 3 to 1 to win and from the chart above, we can see that AK has a 2.6 to 1 advantage over your hand. What’s that mean? It means you call! That’s not to say you want to run into AK with AQ, but if the pot odds are right (i.e. better than you odds of losing), it’s profitable over time to make the call.
“Implied pot odds” include the amount of chips in the pot now, and, to the extent you can predict them, future bets into the pot. If you think calling an unprofitable bet now, will give you a chance to win a monster pot later in the hand, you might call. For example, if you have pocket sixes and your opponent moves all-in and he’s a tight player who won’t do that with anything less than aces or kings, you should fold. But if he’s got tons of chips and makes a little pre-flop bet relative to your respective stack sizes, you might call the bet hoping to flop a set and take his entire stack when he overplays his aces.
Common Situations
I know what you’re thinking, “Ok, Su, I’m not a math whiz. How can I keep it all straight?” Well, not all poker players are math whizzes, but most good players understand the odds of common situations happening. For example, the odds of flopping a pair with any two random cards is 32% or about 1 in 3. So even if you hold 72 off-suit, you have a 32% chance of flopping a seven or a deuce. You might not win the hand (a pair of sevens or pair of deuces rarely gets the job done) but a third of the time, you’ll see another one on the flop. What’s that mean for you? Well, even 72o wins a third of the time against a hand like AK. Would you rather have the AK? Of course. But even with 72o, you’ve got a 1 in 3 shot at winning.
Some other common situations. If you have a pocket pair, the odds of flopping a set are about 12% or 1 in 8.5 times. If you have a pocket pair and your opponent has a set, your odds of winning are about 1 in 10 or <10%. If you have four to a flush with two cards to come, your odds are about 36% (1 in 3) to make your flush. If you have four to a straight with two cards to come, your odds are about 32% (again, roughly 1 in 3). And so on.
If all the numbers seems confusing, don’t stress out. You can find most of these situations in any basic poker book or online site. And once you see the same situations again and again, you’ll start to recognize the value in them and bet accordingly. Poker shows on TV highlight all the crazy hands and celebrity matchups, but all the real money is made by understanding your odds and making sure you get money in when they’re in your favor.
Outs
On a related note, you’ll often hear a player commenting that he has “outs.” Outs are cards which, if they come on the turn or river, make his hand. For example, if I hold two spades in my hand and there are two spades on the flop, I have a “flush draw” or four of the five cards I need to make a flush. If one of the nine remaining spades comes on the turn or river, I make my flush. I might not win, but I’ve got a made hand. Therefore, we say I have nine outs. Similarly, if I have two cards in my hand which, if combined with the board, make an open-ended straight draw (like 9TJQ), there are eight cards in the deck (the four kings and the four 8s) which make a straight. Therefore, I have 8 outs.
You should get used to determining your “outs”, simply counting up the number of cards left in the deck that could make or improve your hand. If you hold the Qs Js…and the board comes 3s 9h Ts, your hand is queen high. BUT there are a number of cards that could make your hand including:
Three Qs
Three Js
Four Ks (they make a straight)
Four 8s (they make the bottom straight)
Seven other spades (note: there are 9 other spades outstanding, but you’ve counted the Ks and 8s already.
For a total of 21 possible outs.
Of course, if your opponent holds pocket aces, the Qs and Js don’t help you (his aces will beat your QQ or JJ) but with the 15 other outs, you’re almost a 60% favorite to win the hand from the flop!
A good rule of thumb is that your odds of winning the hand are about 4x the outs you have on the flop and 2x times the outs you have at the turn. In the above example, you had 15 outs and had about a 60% chance to win (4 x 15 outs). On the turn, you were about 30% to win (2 x 15). Actually, your odds were 56% not 60% but for practical purposes, you can use the 4x and 2x rule to figure out roughly where you stand.
Conclusion
I know I’ve thrown a lot of numbers at you, but to be a winning poker player, you need a command of the basics of odds and outs. At first, it might seem confusing, but as you practice and think out situations, you’ll learn to recognize the profitable spots and start stacking your opponent’s chips. And while making sick reads and cold-blooded bluffs are a huge ego boost, it’s the day-in day-out profitable plays that will build your bankroll fastest. See you at the tables!
Su Kim is Head of Player Relations at Club One Casino at Van Ness & Tulare in downtown Fresno. She’s an accomplished live and online player with tournament victories at Club One Casino and the Commerce Casino in Los Angeles.
Club One Casino holds daily NL poker tournaments and offers live poker games 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Club One Casino also offers poker classes for beginner, intermediate and tournament players. Call (559) 497-3000 or visit www.clubonecasino.com for details.
