When I play poker, I love the challenge of reading opponents or pulling off a nasty bluff, but the reality is that winning poker is all about making smart bets as often as possible. Just as you wouldn’t invest money in some shady deal, you don’t want to put money in the pot unless you have potential to make money. To do that consistently in poker, you need to have a basic understanding of odds and outs.

Basic Odds

First, let’s talk a little about odds. Your “basic odds” are simply the ratio of one outcome to another, like winning to losing. If someone says you have “2 to 1 odds to win”, that means you win two times for each one time you lose. Over time, you will win two out of every three situations and lose the other one.

Basic odds can be expressed in either of two ways—as a ratio of one outcome to another or as the ratio of one outcome to the total outcomes. In the above situation, we can say you have 2 to 1 odds to win OR your odds of winning are 2 in 3. The first is the ratio of outcomes (2 wins to 1 loss); the second is the ratio of one outcome to the total outcomes (2 wins out of 3 total times). They mean the same thing.

Basic odds in poker are most easily thought about in one on one (heads-up) situations. In the chart below, you can see the odds of some Texas hold’em hand match-ups before the flop. For example, if you hold pocket aces and your opponents holds fishhooks, you’re a 4 to 1 favorite (80%) to win the hand. If you hold a pair versus two overcards, you’re basically slightly better than even money (1.2 to 1) to win the pot. That’s why you hear the TV commentators saying, “He’s a coin-flip here, Norm!” when a player turns over QQ versus an opponent’s AK.

Match-up Example Odds
Overpair v underpair                                AA v JJ          4 to 1
Dominated card                                          AKo v AQo    2.6 to 1
Pair v one overcard                                   QQ v ATo        2.3 to 1
Two over-cards v two undercards      AKo v 53o     2 to 1
One overcard                                               ATo v J9o      1.6 to 1
In-between cards                                       ATo v QJo      1.5 to 1
Pair v two overcards                                QQ v AKo        1.2 to 1

Pot Odds

Once you understand your basic odds, you compare them to your pot odds. Your “pot odds” are the amount of the payoff you’re being offered given the amount of chips in a pot and the amount of your bet or call. For example, let’s say you’re in the late stages of a tournament. You raised with AQ and your opponent has re-raised you all-in with what you think might be AK. If you see 1500 chips in the pot and it’s 500 for you to call; we say you’re being offered 3 to 1 (1500/500) odds on your money. To make that situation pay off, you need to be no worse than a 3 to 1 to win and from the chart above, we can see that AK has a 2.6 to 1 advantage over your hand. What’s that mean? It means you call! That’s not to say you want to run into AK with AQ, but if the pot odds are right (i.e. better than you odds of losing), it’s profitable over time to make the call.

“Implied pot odds” include the amount of chips in the pot now, and, to the extent you can predict them, future bets into the pot. If you think calling an unprofitable bet now, will give you a chance to win a monster pot later in the hand, you might call. For example, if you have pocket sixes and your opponent moves all-in and he’s a tight player who won’t do that with anything less than aces or kings, you should fold. But if he’s got tons of chips and makes a little pre-flop bet relative to your respective stack sizes, you might call the bet hoping to flop a set and take his entire stack when he overplays his aces.

Common Situations

I know what you’re thinking, “Ok, Su, I’m not a math whiz. How can I keep it all straight?” Well, not all poker players are math whizzes, but most good players understand the odds of common situations happening. For example, the odds of flopping a pair with any two random cards is 32% or about 1 in 3. So even if you hold 72 off-suit, you have a 32% chance of flopping a seven or a deuce. You might not win the hand (a pair of sevens or pair of deuces rarely gets the job done) but a third of the time, you’ll see another one on the flop. What’s that mean for you? Well, even 72o wins a third of the time against a hand like AK. Would you rather have the AK? Of course. But even with 72o, you’ve got a 1 in 3 shot at winning.

Some other common situations. If you have a pocket pair, the odds of flopping a set are about 12% or 1 in 8.5 times. If you have a pocket pair and your opponent has a set, your odds of winning are about 1 in 10 or <10%. If you have four to a flush with two cards to come, your odds are about 36% (1 in 3) to make your flush. If you have four to a straight with two cards to come, your odds are about 32% (again, roughly 1 in 3). And so on.

If all the numbers seems confusing, don’t stress out. You can find most of these situations in any basic poker book or online site. And once you see the same situations again and again, you’ll start to recognize the value in them and bet accordingly. Poker shows on TV highlight all the crazy hands and celebrity matchups, but all the real money is made by understanding your odds and making sure you get money in when they’re in your favor.

Outs

On a related note, you’ll often hear a player commenting that he has “outs.” Outs are cards which, if they come on the turn or river, make his hand. For example, if I hold two spades in my hand and there are two spades on the flop, I have a “flush draw” or four of the five cards I need to make a flush. If one of the nine remaining spades comes on the turn or river, I make my flush. I might not win, but I’ve got a made hand. Therefore, we say I have nine outs. Similarly, if I have two cards in my hand which, if combined with the board, make an open-ended straight draw (like 9TJQ), there are eight cards in the deck (the four kings and the four 8s) which make a straight. Therefore, I have 8 outs.

You should get used to determining your “outs”, simply counting up the number of cards left in the deck that could make or improve your hand. If you hold the Qs Js…and the board comes 3s 9h Ts, your hand is queen high. BUT there are a number of cards that could make your hand including:

Three Qs
Three Js
Four Ks (they make a straight)
Four 8s (they make the bottom straight)
Seven other spades (note: there are 9 other spades outstanding, but you’ve counted the Ks and 8s already.

For a total of 21 possible outs.

Of course, if your opponent holds pocket aces, the Qs and Js don’t help you (his aces will beat your QQ or JJ) but with the 15 other outs, you’re almost a 60% favorite to win the hand from the flop!

A good rule of thumb is that your odds of winning the hand are about 4x the outs you have on the flop and 2x times the outs you have at the turn. In the above example, you had 15 outs and had about a 60% chance to win (4 x 15 outs). On the turn, you were about 30% to win (2 x 15). Actually, your odds were 56% not 60% but for practical purposes, you can use the 4x and 2x rule to figure out roughly where you stand.

Conclusion

I know I’ve thrown a lot of numbers at you, but to be a winning poker player, you need a command of the basics of odds and outs. At first, it might seem confusing, but as you practice and think out situations, you’ll learn to recognize the profitable spots and start stacking your opponent’s chips. And while making sick reads and cold-blooded bluffs are a huge ego boost, it’s the day-in day-out profitable plays that will build your bankroll fastest. See you at the tables!

Su Kim is Head of Player Relations at Club One Casino at Van Ness & Tulare in downtown Fresno. She’s an accomplished live and online player with tournament victories at Club One Casino and the Commerce Casino in Los Angeles.

Club One Casino holds daily NL poker tournaments and offers live poker games 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Club One Casino also offers poker classes for beginner, intermediate and tournament players. Call (559) 497-3000 or visit www.clubonecasino.com for details.

In this post, I’d like to introduce all the poker newbies out there to playing in a real poker room. You can sit at home and play poker online, but you’ll never get to the WSOP final table until you actually get dressed and head into a real casino. Unfortunately, even if you’ve crushed your home game or online poker, your first trip to a live card room can make you feel like a virgin at Mustang Ranch on payday. Not that I’ve ever done that…but I have been to a ton of poker rooms. Here’s the scoop…

First of all, don’t be intimidated. Pretty much all poker rooms from Club One Casino to the Bellagio have the same basic layout and procedures, and if you’ve played poker before you’ll get the hang of it quickly. Huge card rooms like the Commerce Casino or Bicycle Casino (both in LA) have an information desk at the front entrance. You can ask the attendant to direct you or just wander around and get a feel for the place—the poker area, the tournament area, etc. In Vegas casinos like the Mirage (below), there will usually be a separate poker room with a desk or podium at the front of the room.

Don’t be scared, boys…

In either case, don’t be shy. Tell the attendant it’s your first time and ask them for info on what games or tournaments are being offered. In most cases, they’ll point you to the board area where the games and waitlists are managed. Once there, just ask what games are going and, if you see one you like, let the person managing the board know. He’ll put your name on the waitlist and when a seat opens in the game, he’ll call you over the intercom. And definitely put your name on more than one list. In poker and life, the sexiest games get the most attention. Sometimes it’s better to get a little action from your second choice than go home disappointed!

Some rooms, like the Bicycle Casino, have automated lists that are shown on big TV monitors. Others, like Club One Casino, have a simple dry erase board on which players list their names. Whatever the setup, ask the board person where you should hang out—the bar, the restaurant—and wait for your name to be called, but PAY ATTENTION! If you’re watching TV at the bar and miss your call, you’ll be back on the waitlist watching some other guy work your action.

Su Kim! We have your 20/40 seat!

Can’t be a playa, if you don’t have the ‘roll, right? When you sign up for the games, ask the board-person where you can get chips. Typically, you can buy chips at the cage or cashier or right at the table from a chip runner. In both cases, just tell the attendant what game you’re interested in playing and they’ll hook you up with the chips in use at that table. For example, in a 1/1 no limit game, you might want $40 in $1 chips. If you’re not sure, just ask. Here’s a little Su tip, though. Hit the ATM before you get to the casino. Nothing screams “FISH!” like the guy standing in front of the ATM.

While you’re waiting for your seat, look around the room and get a feel for the place. Better poker rooms have a Code of Conduct posted to make sure new customers know what’s acceptable card room conduct. Even trolls know the basics—no biting or fighting—but there are other poker standards like acting in turn, announcing your bets and not talking during a hand that might not be so obvious. Spend a minute educating yourself and you won’t look like a rookie when you shout “All in!” out of turn.

Once you’re seated at the table, the quickest way to get comfortable is just watch what other players are doing. If you have questions about your turn or the rules, ask the dealer. The dealer is there to manage the game and will be happy to tell you the basics like initial bets, when it’s your turn and minimum and maximum bets. The best way to learn, though, is to simply watch what other players are doing and get in the flow of the game.

Don’t watch me…watch the action!

As a final tip, you should know that live games are different from home games and online play. Just play tight and smart, keep looking for ways to add chips to your stack and you’ll be fine. After a couple of visits to your local card room, you’ll have the confidence to stroll into the big game at Club One Casino with three racks of high society and play like a Doyle Brunson himself!

Su Kim is Head of Player Relations at Club One Casino at Van Ness & Tulare in downtown Fresno. She’s an accomplished live and online player with tournament victories at Club One Casino and the Commerce Casino in Los Angeles.

Su can be reached at sukim@clubonecasino.com.

Club One Casino offers live poker games 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Call (559) 497-3000 or visit www.clubonecasino.com for details.

This month I want to talk about game selection and bankroll management, two things that every winning poker player needs to understand and incorporate into his game.

In one of the opening scenes from Rounders, Mike (Matt Damon) pushes his entire bankroll into pot with Teddy KGB (John Malkovich). Mike’s full house is crushed by Teddy KGB’s better full house and Mike ends up driving one of his pals delivery trucks to make ends meet.

In this classic scene, Mike violates the two crucial concepts—he plays against a very tough opponent who’s likely much better than he is and he risks his entire bankroll in one game. Unless you feel like driving a delivery truck every few months or so, this is a very BAD idea.

First, let’s talk about game selection. I often see a player grab chips and sit down in a big game with tough opponents when a lower limit game at the next table is a juicier game with several obvious fish. Either his ego won’t let him play the smaller game or he’s not thinking, but the result is the same. He ends up stuck in a game in which he’s much less likely to be a winner. Don’t let this be you!

Always remember that the goal of poker is to win money, and your chances of winning money in a skill game like poker are higher against lesser skilled opponents. Of course, you may want to challenge yourself against better opponents—it’s the only way you’ll get better—but always ask yourself before you sit down, “Is there an easier (i.e. more profitable) game available?” It may make you feel like a balla to sit in the big game, but pulling a couple of hundred dollars from a small game is better than grinding for hours in the big game and have nothing to show for it. Don’t believe me? Try paying your bar tab with ego!

The second concept I want to address is bankroll management. I frequently see players sitting in games that play bigger than their bankroll will allow. You should always limit yourself to those games in which your bankroll can handle the variance of bad beats or coolers. The beauty (and grossness!) of poker is that there are swings in the game that let the fish make mistakes but still win from time to time. The ugly truth, though, is even pocket aces lose to 72 off-suit 12.4% of the time. If you’ve got 10% of your bankroll in a pot and you lose, you can move on to the next hand and let the math get you even. If you’ve got your whole bankroll in the pot…well, just remember the look on Mike’s face when Teddy showed him the aces full.

Does this mean you’re stuck playing smaller games? Not necessarily. Want to move up into a bigger NL game? Just buy-in for the minimum amount and “short-stack” the game. While you won’t win as much with your good hands, it reduces the advantage that a skilled opponent might have and limits your downside. You might not win as much money when you hit a great hand, but you be less likely to make a bad mistake that leaves you broke.

So, to recap, always think about your game selection and bankroll management. Play the easier, smaller games until your skill and budget justify your seat in the big game. Making sweet dough in a smaller game is better than being stuck behind the wheel of a bread truck any day!

Su Kim is Head of Player Relations at Club One Casino at Van Ness & Tulare in downtown Fresno. She’s an accomplished live and online player with tournament victories at Club One Casino and the Commerce Casino in Los Angeles.

Su can be reached at sukim@clubonecasino.com.

Club One Casino is offering WSOP satellites on Sunday, March 15th and Sunday, March 29th at 1p. Call (559) 497-3000 or visit www.clubonecasino.com for details.

Ok, so you’ve been playing for a few years now and you think you should be on your way to the final table of the World Series of Poker, but these stupid donkeys keep sucking out and putting you on tilt.  Sound familiar?  Well, you’re in good company.  Lots of good players have gone through that stage.

The great thing about poker is that it’s a skill game, which means you can actually get better if you work on it, AND an odds game, which means in the long run, the good players win out over the donkeys.  The is to keep your emotions in check because sometimes the long run is pretty darn long.

So what can you do to improve?  First, make fewer mistakes.  Sounds simple, right?  But at the tables, I see players repeating the same mistakes–calling when they should fold, for example–instead of thinking about their opponents and the situation and making a logical decision.  Poker on TV highlight “Degree All-in moments”, dramatic Phil Hellmuth blowups and horrible beats, but winning poker is all about making fewer mistakes than your opponents.

Next time you’re in a hand, stop and ask yourself, “What should I do here?”  If the board shows KK64 with three spades showing and two all-ins in front of you, your pocket aces are no good and the belong in the muck.  It’s gross, for sure, but don’t call and complain after your chips get shipped across the table to some newbie who filps up K9 or A3 spades.  Instead, take a breath, fold and congratulate yourself that you lost the minimum amount.  Money saved is just as good as money won, and we all know the landlord won’t take a bad beat story for the March rent!

Second, one of my poker friends one told me, “If you play perfect poker, all your beats will be bad.”  It’s really true and when you realize that, it makes the beats a little easier to take.  While poker is a skill game, there is an element of luck which, when it goes your opponent’s way, can really ruin your night.  The key is trusting the math to pull you through.  If I get my chips into the pot with the odds in my favor and my opponent sucks out, over time, I know I’ll get his money.  I just take a breath and move on to the next hand so he can make another mistake.  He will, as sure as that Corona he’s drinking!

Bottom line, if you focus on making fewer mistakes and getting your emotions in check, it might not get you on ESPN, but your results and bankroll will improve…ALOT.  Try it!

Su Kim is Head of Player Relations at Club One Casino at Van Ness & Tulare in downtown Fresno.  She’s an accomplished live and online player with tournament victories at Club One Casino and the Commerce Casino in Los Angeles.